2024 UK General Election: Predicting Every Seat
Imbibe an energy drink or three - it's Christmas for political nerds!
Introduction
Welcome to my prediction post for next week’s general election! The campaign feels like it’s dragged on for months, and I wouldn’t be surprised if everyone with any kind of stake in the outcome breathes a huge sigh of relief the day afterwards. Of course, the 650 elected candidates won’t get much chance to repose, especially if they’re in the governing party.
With this, I hope to answer the three key questions surrounding the outcome:
How big will Labour’s majority be?
How low will the Conservatives really go?
How divided will the opposition parties be (in terms of seats)?
Much like what happened to the Liberal Democrats at the end of their time in coalition government in 2015, the Tories are going to be attacked in the ballot box from all sides—mainly from the left/liberal axis, but crucially this time, also from the right. The level of tactical voting is also set to outstrip 1997 in a big way, and the voting intention polling does not show a narrowing between the current main two parties. All of that was in my mind when coming up with the below.
The usual health warnings about my not being an expert and/or qualified psephologist/political scientist in any way apply.
Here we go…
Northern Ireland
Ignored by all but the most politically aware and obsessive types this side of the Irish Sea, the Westminster elections here are going to be equally replete in the kind of drama as will be witnessed on the British mainland. Both main nationalist and unionist parties, Sinn Féin and the DUP, have seen their polling trickle down since the election was called. This is both a product of not standing candidates in all 18 constituencies, but also because their fortunes are waning from previously very high watermarks, especially in the DUP’s case.
Even so, Sinn Féin should onto all seven they had in 2019, but they also could add another one in East Londonderry of all places, which would be the first time any nationalist party have done so. Elsewhere, there are three kinds of battles—the SDLP holding onto their two seats, which they should do, albeit on vastly reduced majorities. Then, there are the pitched fights between DUP and the steadily growing third force in Northern Irish politics, the cross-community/unaligned Alliance (sister party of the Lib Dems). Unusually, two party leaders are going head to head in East Belfast—Naomi Long is looking to unseat Gavin Robinson, and she should pull it off. There could be similar joy for her highly regarded colleague Sorcha Eastwood in Lagan Valley and Michelle Guy in Strangford, though these gains could come at the cost of losing deputy leader Stephen Farry’s seat of North Down to Alex Easton, an independent unionist.
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Lastly, the UUP will be desperately hoping to be back in the Commons where they have had no MPs since 2017. Their best shot will be South Antrim, where Robin Swann could come off best in a potential four-way marginal to unseat the DUP’s Paul Girvan.
If they can pull it off, it could mean the restoration of all five main parties having representation at Westminster in a more numerically balanced manner (though Sinn Féin are unlikely anytime soon to reverse their policy on abstentionism).
Seats:
Belfast East: Alliance gain from DUP
Belfast North: Sinn Féin hold
Belfast South and Mid Down: SDLP hold
Belfast West: Sinn Féin hold
East Antrim: DUP hold
East Londonderry: Sinn Féin gain from DUP
Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Sinn Féin hold
Foyle: SDLP hold
Lagan Valley: Alliance gain from DUP
Mid Ulster: Sinn Féin hold
Newry and Armagh: Sinn Féin hold
North Antrim: DUP hold
North Down: Alex Easton (Independent) gain from Alliance
South Antrim: UUP gain from DUP
South Down: Sinn Féin hold
Strangford: Alliance gain from DUP
Upper Bann: DUP hold
West Tyrone: Sinn Féin hold
Running Totals (2019 notionals / 2024 GE / change):
Sinn Féin: 7 / 8 / +1
Alliance: 1 / 3 / +2
DUP: 7 / 3 / -4
SDLP: 2 / 2 / 0
UUP: 0 / 1 / +1
Independent: 0 / 1 / +1
Wales
Another area in the UK that seems to be flying well under the radar during the campaign, Labour’s quarter-century stranglehold on the Senedd could finally be loosening, precipitated in no small way by the scandal embroiling new First Minister Vaughan Gething and a donation he accepted during his bid for leadership earlier this year, but this is unlikely to dent their chances of dominating at Westminster level next week. All of the polling shows most voters across Wales now hold deeply negative views of Mark Drakeford’s successor, though this is unlikely to bleed through to the Westminster election. He vowed to stay on earlier this month despite losing a non-binding vote of no confidence, mere weeks after Plaid Cymru withdrew from their cooperation agreement with Labour in Cardiff.
The collapse of the Conservatives… well, everywhere, makes the party far less likely to be the repository for a section of the electorate that might want to register their displeasure at how things are going. Instead, some will turn to Plaid Cymru or even Reform UK—it isn’t clear which party will come second in terms of voteshare, though it could still be the Tories.
Moreover, the melting away of support for the latter puts every single constituency they hold in Wales in jeopardy. Labour are expected to be the main beneficiaries, holding all of their current seats and retaking the likes of Wrexham, both Clwyd North and Clwyd East, and even Monmouthshire (though the total number in the country has been reduced from 40 to 32).
The current gambling scandal also directly undermines the Tories’ efforts to hold onto Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, and might help to at least partly explain why Rishi Sunak took so long to take action on Craig Williams—central party support was withdrawn for his candidacy whilst writing this article. Brecon, Radnor, & Cwm-Tawe, the huge constituency south of the aforementioned one, represents the Lib Dems’ only realistic hope of getting some orange back on the map.
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorweth has run a decent campaign, using the series of interminable debates to full effect to attack Labour from well to the left of the latter party’s current positioning, and to water down talk of Welsh independence in order to broaden their appeal. Notionally cut to just two seats, they could double their Westminster representation by edging out the competition in the three-way marginals of Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin.
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Seats:
Aberafan Maesteg: Labour hold
Alyn and Deeside: Labour hold
Bangor Aberconwy: Labour gain from Conservative
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney: Labour hold
Brecon, Radnor, & Cwm-Tawe: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Bridgend: Labour gain from Conservative
Caerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru gain from Conservative
Caerphilly: Labour hold
Cardiff East: Labour hold
Cardiff North: Labour hold
Cardiff South and Penarth: Labour hold
Cardiff West: Labour hold
Ceredigion Preseli: Plaid Cymru hold
Clwyd East: Labour gain from Conservative
Clwyd North: Labour gain from Conservative
Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Plaid Cymru hold
Gower: Labour hold
Llanelli: Labour hold
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare: Labour hold
Mid and South Pembrokeshire: Labour gain from Conservative
Monmouthshire: Labour gain from Conservative
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr: Labour gain from Conservative
Neath and Swansea East: Labour hold
Newport East: Labour hold
Newport West and Islwyn: Labour hold
Pontypridd: Labour hold
Rhondda and Ogmore: Labour hold
Swansea West: Labour hold
Torfaen: Labour hold
Vale Of Glamorgan: Labour gain from Conservative
Wrexham: Labour gain from Conservative
Ynys Môn: Plaid Cymru gain from Conservative
Running Totals (2019 notionals / 2024 GE / change):
Labour: 18 / 27 / +9
Plaid Cymru: 2 / 4 / +2
Lib Dem: 0 / 1 / +1
Conservative: 12 / 0 / -12
======================
Sinn Féin: 7 / 8 / +1
Alliance: 1 / 3 / +2
DUP: 7 / 3 / -4
SDLP: 2 / 2 / 0
UUP: 0 / 1 / +1
Independent: 0 / 1 / +1
Scotland
Much like the Senedd, Holyrood has been in the grip of one party for a generation. Before 2023, it seemed as if nothing could dent the popularity the SNP enjoyed, but a series of events precipitated at the outset by long-standing First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s sudden resignation has since seen the party embroiled in scandal and an ongoing police investigation into possible fraud. Short on money and sagging in the polls, Sturgeon’s replacement, Humza Yousaf, decided to end the agreement with the Scottish Greens (separate entities to the English & Welsh Greens) before they could pull the trigger. The move backfired, and Yousaf resigned shortly before the Westminster general election was called.
John Swinney, a highly regarded SNP stalwart in the ‘moderate wing’, was elected unopposed, and now must simultaneously steady the ship and head off the growing threat of Labour at both Holyrood and Westminster north of the border—some polls have his rival Anas Sarwar ahead, whilst others see the parties locked together in a dead heat.
Success will hinge on retaining at least some of the Central Belt. In 2019, Labour only had one seat out of 59 in the entire country—Edinburgh South. Two seats have disappeared because of boundary changes, but Starmer is targeting a nice round number of 30, which would constitute more than half of the constituencies and restore their status as the largest at Westminster, a title that was reduced to shambles in 2015.
Most of the seats between the two biggest cities will be decided on reasonably tight margins, a phenomenon that could also be repeated elsewhere in the country in the less densely populated areas. All six Glasgow seats look vulnerable to turning red, whilst in Edinburgh South West, Joanna Cherry’s old seat could be the sole yellow area of the capital.
In the Highlands, there is likely to be better fortunes for the SNP. In clear head-to-heads against the receding Conservatives, it could come down to whose voteshare drops the least that determines a smattering of constituencies. Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross, who’s stepping down from that post after next week regardless of what happens, could be ‘rewarded’ for unceremoniously dumping ill colleague David Duguid from his Aberdeenshire North and Moray East candidacy by going on to lose it. That could represent one of two SNP gains against the likely trend, the other coming further south in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine.
Labour are almost certain to reclaim former Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s old stomping grounds in Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy (albeit with the constituency name flipped), and could leap from a seemingly distant third in the Borders to nick both Dumfries and Galloway and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale, and Tweeddale on sub-30% shares of the vote.
Neither Alba nor Reform UK are set to come close to winning a seat, whilst a good night in Scotland for the Liberal Democrats would be to firstly retain the notional two they have in Edinburgh West, and Orkney and Shetland (the latter being the only seat they’ve retained since before the turn of the century), and then ‘gain’ three more—North East Fife, Caithness, Sutherland, and Easter Ross, and Mid Dunbartonshire. The first two are notionally SNP held because of boundary changes, but the third would be symbolic, especially as it was (mostly) former leader Jo Swinson’s before famously losing it in 2019.
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Seats:
Aberdeen North: SNP hold
Aberdeen South: SNP hold
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: SNP gain from Conservative
Airdrie and Shotts: Labour gain from SNP
Alloa and Grangemouth: SNP hold
Angus and Perthshire Glens: SNP hold
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry: SNP hold
Argyll, Bute, and South Lochaber: SNP hold
Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock: Labour gain from SNP
Bathgate and Linlithgow: Labour gain from SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh, and Selkirk: Conservative hold
Caithness, Sutherland, and Easter Ross: Liberal Democrat gain from SNP
Central Ayrshire: Labour gain from SNP
Coatbridge and Bellshill: Labour gain from SNP
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy: Labour gain from SNP
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch: Labour gain from SNP
Dumfries and Galloway: Labour gain from Conservative
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: Labour gain from Conservative
Dundee Central: SNP hold
Dunfermline and Dollar: Labour gain from SNP
East Kilbride and Strathaven: Labour gain from SNP
East Renfrewshire: Labour gain from SNP
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh: Labour gain from SNP
Edinburgh North and Leith: Labour gain from SNP
Edinburgh South: Labour hold
Edinburgh South West: SNP hold
Edinburgh West: Liberal Democrat hold
Falkirk: SNP hold
Glasgow East: Labour gain from SNP
Glasgow North: Labour gain from SNP
Glasgow North East: Labour gain from SNP
Glasgow South: Labour gain from SNP
Glasgow South West: Labour gain from SNP
Glasgow West: Labour gain from SNP
Glenrothes and Mid Fife: Labour gain from SNP
Gordon and Buchan: Conservative hold
Hamilton and Clyde Valley: Labour gain from SNP
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West: Labour gain from SNP
Inverness, Skye, and West Ross-shire: SNP hold
Kilmarnock and Loudoun: SNP hold
Livingston: Labour gain from SNP
Lothian East: Labour gain from SNP
Mid Dunbartonshire: Liberal Democrat gain from SNP
Midlothian: Labour gain from SNP
Moray West, Nairn, and Strathspey: SNP hold
Motherwell, Wishaw, and Carluke: Labour gain from SNP
Na h-Eileanan An Iar: Labour gain from SNP
North Ayrshire and Arran: SNP hold
North East Fife: Liberal Democrat gain from SNP
Orkney and Shetland: Liberal Democrat hold
Paisley and Renfrewshire North: Labour gain from SNP
Paisley and Renfrewshire South: Labour gain from SNP
Perth and Kinross-shire: SNP hold
Rutherglen: Labour gain from SNP
Stirling and Strathallan: SNP hold
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: SNP gain from Conservative
West Dunbartonshire: Labour gain from SNP
Running Totals (2019 notionals / 2024 GE / change):
Labour: 19 / 60 / +41
SNP: 48 / 17 / -31
Lib Dem: 2 / 6 / +4
Plaid Cymru: 2 / 4 / +2
Conservative: 18 / 2 / -16
======================
Sinn Féin: 7 / 8 / +1
Alliance: 1 / 3 / +2
DUP: 7 / 3 / -4
SDLP: 2 / 2 / 0
UUP: 0 / 1 / +1
Independent: 0 / 1 / +1
North East England
The last election saw a considerable encroachment into traditional Labour territory by the Tories, fuelled by a promise to deliver Brexit and to ‘level up’ areas of socioeconomic deprivation, neglected by governments of all stripes for decades. Though the Covid pandemic and the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine certainly complicated the Tories' plans for the north-east, a region in dire need of real investment, they are set to be resoundingly rejected at the ballot box as voters turn back to Labour.
Few results will come in before 1:00AM on election night, but one of the first indicators of how well Keir Starmer will do and the exit poll did will come in Bridget Phillipson’s seat of Houghton and Sunderland South, which could be the second to declare. Set to be the next Education Secretary, the scale of how much she increases her majority will be dissected for an interminable length of time until other results start to trickle in.
Elsewhere, there could be a red sweep. Simon Clarke, a loyal ally of Boris Johnson, is certain to be powerless to prevent his constituency of Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland from turning crimson. Hartlepool, the site of Starmer’s nadir in 2021 when it went blue at a bruising by-election, should be an easy ‘hold’ for newcomer Jonathan Brash, and the Tories could be pushed into third there and in many other areas of Tyne-Tees by Reform UK splitting the right-wing vote.
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Seats:
Bishop Auckland: Labour gain from Conservative
Blaydon and Consett: Labour hold
Blyth and Ashington: Labour hold
City Of Durham: Labour hold
Cramlington and Killingworth: Labour hold
Darlington: Labour gain from Conservative
Easington: Labour hold
Gateshead Central and Whickham: Labour hold
Hartlepool: Labour hold
Hexham: Labour gain from Conservative
Houghton and Sunderland South: Labour hold
Jarrow and Gateshead East: Labour hold
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East: Labour hold
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland: Labour gain from Conservative
Newcastle Upon Tyne Central and West: Labour hold
Newcastle Upon Tyne East and Wallsend: Labour hold
Newcastle Upon Tyne North: Labour hold
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor: Labour gain from Conservative
North Durham: Labour hold
North Northumberland: Labour gain from Conservative
Redcar: Labour gain from Conservative
South Shields: Labour hold
Stockton North: Labour hold
Stockton West: Labour gain from Conservative
Sunderland Central: Labour hold
Tynemouth: Labour hold
Washington and Gateshead South: Labour hold
Running Totals (2019 notionals / 2024 GE / change):
Labour: 38 / 87 / +49
SNP: 48 / 17 / -31
Lib Dem: 2 / 6 / +4
Plaid Cymru: 2 / 4 / +2
Conservative: 26 / 2 / -24
======================
Sinn Féin: 7 / 8 / +1
Alliance: 1 / 3 / +2
DUP: 7 / 3 / -4
SDLP: 2 / 2 / 0
UUP: 0 / 1 / +1
Independent: 0 / 1 / +1
Yorkshire & The Humber
A region split fairly evenly between the main two parties five years ago, the landscape is set to drastically alter next week. Additionally, there’s the curio of Rishi Sunak having to campaign in his own seat of Richmond and Northallerton to head off rumours of an unthinkable occurrence—a sitting Prime Minister losing. It’s unlikely to come to pass, but that it’s even being seriously discussed as a possibility is evident of the swing against the Conservatives, handily illustrated by Labour winning the York and North Yorkshire mayoralty back at the beginning of May, an area that covers Sunak’s patch.
Though Reform UK are unlikely to pick up any seats here either, they could rack up plenty of second placed finishes in current Labour holds or targets, including Barnsley North, Barnsley South, and even Doncaster Central. The Tories could cling on in eastern areas of the region like Bridlington and the Wolds where they had north of 65% of the share of the vote under Boris Johnson. If proportional swing is in play as many expect at the election, such shares could be halved or worse, though split oppositions could still mean they’re retained.
The Lib Dems have just two targets: Sheffield Hallam, which is the only real, full-blooded clash with Labour, and Harrogate and Knaresborough. There’s some suggestion that the sizeable contingent of disgruntled Tory voters will put an ‘x’ next to Shaffaq Mohammed’s name in sufficient quantities to turn it orange, but the likelier outcome is that most of them stay at home or punt for Reform UK. The latter was Lib Dem held prior to 2010, and should return to the fold.
Aside from that, many of the rural areas will be won by Labour—the much-changed seat of Selby, won in a 2023 by-election, will ‘permanently’ go red next week.
Seats:
Barnsley North: Labour hold
Barnsley South: Labour hold
Beverley and Holderness: Labour gain from Conservative
Bradford East: Labour hold
Bradford South: Labour hold
Bradford West: Labour hold
Bridlington and The Wolds: Conservative hold
Brigg and Immingham: Conservative hold
Calder Valley: Labour gain from Conservative
Colne Valley: Labour gain from Conservative
Dewsbury and Batley: Labour hold
Doncaster Central: Labour hold
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme: Labour gain from Conservative
Doncaster North: Labour hold
Goole and Pocklington: Conservative hold
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes: Labour gain from Conservative
Halifax: Labour hold
Harrogate and Knaresborough: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Huddersfield: Labour hold
Keighley and Ilkley: Labour gain from Conservative
Kingston upon Hull East: Labour hold
Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham: Labour hold
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: Labour gain from Conservative
Leeds Central and Headingley: Labour hold
Leeds East: Labour hold
Leeds North East: Labour hold
Leeds North West: Labour gain from Conservative
Leeds South: Labour hold
Leeds South West and Morley: Labour gain from Conservative
Leeds West and Pudsey: Labour hold
Normanton and Hemsworth: Labour hold
Ossett and Denby Dale: Labour gain from Conservative
Penistone and Stocksbridge: Labour gain from Conservative
Pontefract, Castleford, and Knottingley: Labour hold
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough: Labour hold
Richmond and Northallerton: Conservative hold
Rother Valley: Labour gain from Conservative
Rotherham: Labour hold
Scarborough and Whitby: Labour gain from Conservative
Scunthorpe: Labour gain from Conservative
Selby: Labour gain from Conservative
Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough: Labour hold
Sheffield Central: Labour hold
Sheffield Hallam: Labour hold
Sheffield Heeley: Labour hold
Sheffield South East: Labour hold
Shipley: Labour gain from Conservative
Skipton and Ripon: Conservative hold
Spen Valley: Labour gain from Conservative
Thirsk and Malton: Conservative hold
Wakefield and Rothwell: Labour gain from Conservative
Wetherby and Easingwold: Conservative hold
York Central: Labour hold
York Outer: Labour gain from Conservative
Running Totals (2019 notionals / 2024 GE / change):
Labour: 65 / 133 / +68
SNP: 48 / 17 / -31
Conservative: 53 / 8 / -45
Lib Dem: 2 / 7 / +5
Plaid Cymru: 2 / 4 / +2
======================
Sinn Féin: 7 / 8 / +1
Alliance: 1 / 3 / +2
DUP: 7 / 3 / -4
SDLP: 2 / 2 / 0
UUP: 0 / 1 / +1
Independent: 0 / 1 / +1
North West England
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Like the north-east, the region I grew up in and called my home for the first 22 years of my life—Rossendale and Darwen (a bellwether seat that flips between Labour and Tory), then Manchester Rusholme (permanently Labour), could be about to eject every single Conservative. With some constituencies comprising part of the ‘Red Wall’, the larger towns in the Greater Manchester conurbation, which temporarily at least embraced Boris Johnson, are set to flip back in brutal fashion, with future, less extreme elections probably producing a decent number of swing seats.
In the here and now though, Tory constituencies with tiny majorities like Bury North, Bolton North East, and Leigh & Atherton are set to form the first part of a Labour avalanche in the area. George Galloway’s latest electoral vehicle, the Workers Party of Great Britain, are unlikely to trouble Labour too much outside of Rochdale, though they have targeted Deputy Leader Angela Rayner’s patch in Ashton-Under-Lyne. The wealthier constituencies in Cheshire should also fall to Starmer’s swelling contingent. Elsewhere, it will be an all-red affair, with only the Speaker’s residency in Chorley and three splotches of orange (namely Tim Farron’s personal fiefdom of Westmorland and Lonsdale, Cheadle, and Hazel Grove) besmirching a clean sweep for Labour.
Seats:
Altrincham and Sale West: Labour gain from Conservative
Ashton-Under-Lyne: Labour hold
Barrow and Furness: Labour gain from Conservative
Birkenhead: Labour hold
Blackburn: Labour hold
Blackley and Middleton South: Labour hold
Blackpool North and Fleetwood: Labour gain from Conservative
Blackpool South: Labour gain from Conservative
Bolton North East: Labour gain from Conservative
Bolton South and Walkden: Labour hold
Bolton West: Labour gain from Conservative
Bootle: Labour hold
Burnley: Labour gain from Conservative
Bury North: Labour gain from Conservative
Bury South: Labour gain from Conservative
Carlisle: Labour gain from Conservative
Cheadle: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Chester North and Neston: Labour hold
Chester South and Eddisbury: Labour gain from Conservative
Chorley: Speaker hold
Congleton: Labour gain from Conservative
Crewe and Nantwich: Labour gain from Conservative
Ellesmere Port and Bromborough: Labour hold
Fylde: Labour gain from Conservative
Gorton and Denton: Labour hold
Hazel Grove: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Heywood and Middleton North: Labour hold
Hyndburn: Labour gain from Conservative
Knowsley: Labour hold
Lancaster and Wyre: Labour gain from Conservative
Leigh and Atherton: Labour gain from Conservative
Liverpool Garston: Labour hold
Liverpool Riverside: Labour hold
Liverpool Walton: Labour hold
Liverpool Wavertree: Labour hold
Liverpool West Derby: Labour hold
Macclesfield: Labour gain from Conservative
Makerfield: Labour hold
Manchester Central: Labour hold
Manchester Rusholme: Labour hold
Manchester Withington: Labour hold
Mid Cheshire: Labour gain from Conservative
Morecambe and Lunesdale: Labour gain from Conservative
Oldham East and Saddleworth: Labour hold
Oldham West, Chadderton, and Royton: Labour hold
Pendle and Clitheroe: Labour gain from Conservative
Penrith and Solway: Labour gain from Conservative
Preston: Labour hold
Ribble Valley: Labour gain from Conservative
Rochdale: Labour hold
Rossendale and Darwen: Labour gain from Conservative
Runcorn and Helsby: Labour hold
Salford: Labour hold
Sefton Central: Labour hold
South Ribble: Labour hold
Southport: Labour hold
St Helens North: Labour hold
St Helens South and Whiston: Labour hold
Stalybridge and Hyde: Labour hold
Stockport: Labour hold
Stretford and Urmston: Labour hold
Tatton: Labour gain from Conservative
Wallasey: Labour hold
Warrington North: Labour hold
Warrington South: Labour hold
West Lancashire: Labour hold
Westmorland and Lonsdale: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Whitehaven and Workington: Labour gain from Conservative
Widnes and Halewood: Labour hold
Wigan: Labour hold
Wirral West: Labour hold
Worsley and Eccles: Labour hold
Wythenshawe and Sale East: Labour hold
Running Totals (2019 notionals / 2024 GE / change):
Labour: 106 / 202 / +96
SNP: 48 / 17 / -31
Lib Dem: 2 / 10 / +8
Conservative: 84 / 8 / -76
Plaid Cymru: 2 / 4 / +2
======================
Sinn Féin: 7 / 8 / +1
Alliance: 1 / 3 / +2
DUP: 7 / 3 / -4
SDLP: 2 / 2 / 0
UUP: 0 / 1 / +1
Independent: 0 / 1 / +1
Speaker: 1 / 1 / 0
West Midlands
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The Tories added in big numbers large post-industrial towns to their everblue buttresses in the West Midlands during Johnson’s landslide win. The 2024 pattern seen above of these newly acquired constituencies mostly reverting back to Labour is certain to continue, with even ones which don’t seeing their majorities evaporate to almost zero, though Michael Fabricant and his toupée could survive the razor’s edge in Lichfield, whereas Jonathan Gullis definitely won’t in Stoke-On-Trent North. Gavin Williamson’s seat of Kingswinford and South Staffordshire could end up being the ‘safest’ Conservative seat of all after the poll, and even that will be cut down to size.
Though Labour will take back Birmingham Northfield to make the city a single party micro state once more, there are two additional element at play this time around. The complicated layering of devolved/local government in Britain has seen many councils struggle to stay afloat through a combination of less money from central government, questionable decision making, and some services (especially social care and SEND ) ballooning in cost recently.
The second unwelcome element has of course been Israel’s invasion of Palestine, and Starmer’s subsequent early mishandling of it, has had a deleterious effect on Muslim voters’ feelings towards Labour, somewhat dampening the huge groundswell of support for them across the community. These two elements could in tandem help to bring about either much smaller swings than the national average to Labour, or even ones against it in specific seats. Shabana Mahmood probably won’t be overly troubled by independent candidate Akhmed Yakoob in Birmingham Ladywood (who came a strong third in the West Midlands mayoral election), but his presence alone could serve as an early warning sign if the new government are perceived to falter again on foreign policy.
An excellent night for the Lib Dems would be to ‘gain’ North Shropshire and one or two others, perhaps even South Shropshire and at a stretch, Nadhim Zahawi’s vacated constituency of Stratford-On-Avon. Fourth on the Greens’ national target list of… well, four, is North Herefordshire. Recent MRPs have suggested it could indeed fall to former MEP Ellie Chowns.
Seats:
Aldridge-Brownhills: Conservative hold
Birmingham Edgbaston: Labour hold
Birmingham Erdington: Labour hold
Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley: Labour hold
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North: Labour hold
Birmingham Ladywood: Labour hold
Birmingham Northfield: Labour gain from Conservative
Birmingham Perry Barr: Labour hold
Birmingham Selly Oak: Labour hold
Birmingham Yardley: Labour hold
Bromsgrove: Conservative hold
Burton and Uttoxeter: Labour gain from Conservative
Cannock Chase: Labour gain from Conservative
Coventry East: Labour hold
Coventry North West: Labour hold
Coventry South: Labour hold
Droitwich and Evesham: Conservative hold
Dudley: Labour gain from Conservative
Halesowen: Labour gain from Conservative
Hereford and South Herefordshire: Conservative hold
Kenilworth and Southam: Conservative hold
Kingswinford and South Staffordshire: Conservative hold
Lichfield: Conservative hold
Meriden and Solihull East: Conservative hold
Newcastle-Under-Lyme: Labour gain from Conservative
North Herefordshire: Green gain from Conservative
North Shropshire: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
North Warwickshire and Bedworth: Labour gain from Conservative
Nuneaton: Labour gain from Conservative
Redditch: Labour gain from Conservative
Rugby: Labour gain from Conservative
Shrewsbury: Labour gain from Conservative
Smethwick: Labour hold
Solihull West and Shirley: Conservative hold
South Shropshire: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Stafford: Labour gain from Conservative
Staffordshire Moorlands: Labour gain from Conservative
Stoke-On-Trent Central: Labour gain from Conservative
Stoke-On-Trent North: Labour gain from Conservative
Stoke-On-Trent South: Labour gain from Conservative
Stone, Great Wyrley, and Penkridge: Conservative hold
Stourbridge: Labour gain from Conservative
Stratford-on-Avon: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Sutton Coldfield: Conservative hold
Tamworth: Labour gain from Conservative
Telford: Labour gain from Conservative
The Wrekin: Labour gain from Conservative
Tipton and Wednesbury: Labour gain from Conservative
Walsall and Bloxwich: Labour gain from Conservative
Warwick and Leamington: Labour hold
West Bromwich: Labour gain from Conservative
West Worcestershire: Conservative hold
Wolverhampton North East: Labour gain from Conservative
Wolverhampton South East: Labour hold
Wolverhampton West: Labour gain from Conservative
Worcester: Labour gain from Conservative
Wyre Forest: Conservative hold
Running Totals (2019 notionals / 2024 GE / change):
Labour: 120 / 242 / +122
Conservative: 127 / 21 / -106
SNP: 48 / 17 / -31
Lib Dem: 2 / 13 / +11
Plaid Cymru: 2 / 4 / +2
Green: 0 / 1 / +1
======================
Sinn Féin: 7 / 8 / +1
Alliance: 1 / 3 / +2
DUP: 7 / 3 / -4
SDLP: 2 / 2 / 0
UUP: 0 / 1 / +1
Independent: 0 / 1 / +1
Speaker: 1 / 1 / 0
East Midlands
The Tories are set to be squeezed badly by both Labour and Reform UK in the East Midlands; many Conservative held consistencies could fall on huge swings to Starmer, aided in no small part by Nigel Farage’s band of ‘revolutionaries’. Previously rock solid, true blue coastal areas might well be wiped out, or, as elsewhere, squeak through on comically low voteshares of under 30%. Rushcliffe, the seat Ken Clarke held for so long, will be a symbolic gain for Labour in 2024.
Erstwhile Reform UK supremo Richard Tice is targeting Boston and Skegness, and could come through the middle of a Tory-Labour slugfest to take it. Alicia Kearns, to everyone’s left in the 2019-2024 parliamentary Conservative Party, should hang on in Rutland and Stamford, but she, like some of her colleagues in the immediate geographical vicinity, will be returned on vastly reduced mandates. Former Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick has been pitching himself as a future leader since resigning from the cabinet, but is in big trouble in Newark.
Meanwhile, over in Leicester East, Labour candidate Rajesh Agrawal will be up against not one but two former MPs for the party in the forms of Claudia Webbe and Keith Vaz, though keeping their deposits would represent a good result. In the longer term, the shifting demographics in the city are likely to take it away from them in future contests, and is something worth keeping an eye on.
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Seats:
Amber Valley: Labour gain from Conservative
Ashfield: Reform UK gain from Conservative
Bassetlaw: Labour gain from Conservative
Bolsover: Labour gain from Conservative
Boston and Skegness: Reform UK gain from Conservative
Broxtowe: Labour gain from Conservative
Chesterfield: Labour hold
Corby and East Northamptonshire: Labour gain from Conservative
Daventry: Conservative hold
Derby North: Labour gain from Conservative
Derby South: Labour hold
Derbyshire Dales: Labour gain from Conservative
Erewash: Labour gain from Conservative
Gainsborough: Conservative hold
Gedling: Labour gain from Conservative
Grantham and Bourne: Labour gain from Conservative
Harborough, Oadby, and Wigston: Labour gain from Conservative
High Peak: Labour gain from Conservative
Hinckley and Bosworth: Conservative hold
Kettering: Labour gain from Conservative
Leicester East: Labour hold
Leicester South: Labour hold
Leicester West: Labour hold
Lincoln: Labour gain from Conservative
Loughborough: Labour gain from Conservative
Louth and Horncastle: Conservative hold
Mansfield: Labour gain from Conservative
Melton and Syston: Labour gain from Conservative
Mid Derbyshire: Labour gain from Conservative
Mid Leicestershire: Labour gain from Conservative
Newark: Labour gain from Conservative
North East Derbyshire: Labour gain from Conservative
North West Leicestershire: Labour gain from Conservative
Northampton North: Labour gain from Conservative
Northampton South: Labour gain from Conservative
Nottingham East: Labour hold
Nottingham North and Kimberley: Labour hold
Nottingham South: Labour hold
Rushcliffe: Labour gain from Conservative
Rutland and Stamford: Conservative hold
Sherwood Forest: Labour gain from Conservative
Sleaford and North Hykeham: Conservative hold
South Derbyshire: Labour gain from Conservative
South Holland and The Deepings: Conservative hold
South Leicestershire: Conservative hold
South Northamptonshire: Conservative hold
Wellingborough and Rushden: Labour gain from Conservative
Running Totals (2019 notionals / 2024 GE / change):
Labour: 128 / 278 / +150
Conservative: 166 / 30 / -136
SNP: 48 / 17 / -31
Lib Dem: 2 / 13 / +11
Plaid Cymru: 2 / 4 / +2
Reform UK: 0 / 2 / +2
Green: 0 / 1 / +1
======================
Sinn Féin: 7 / 8 / +1
Alliance: 1 / 3 / +2
DUP: 7 / 3 / -4
SDLP: 2 / 2 / 0
UUP: 0 / 1 / +1
Independent: 0 / 1 / +1
Speaker: 1 / 1 / 0
East of England
Notionally, the Conservatives have 55 of the 61 seats in this diverse region, which takes in a lot of the northern London commuter belt, as well as a heady mixture of well-off, mostly rural tranches. However, another traditionally strong area for them is set to be reduced to scraps on current polling, and, in a break from previous entries, in four different directions (but still mostly to Labour).
Former Prime Minister Liz Truss is in serious trouble in South West Norfolk, where a strong Reform UK showing could hand Labour one of the biggest scalps in British political history. In Suffolk, Green co-leader could win enough wavering Tory votes to make it in Waveney Valley, and down in Clacton, Nigel Farage is standing in his eighth attempt to break through and become an MP, and definitely his best chance yet.
Labour are set to sweep through everywhere, winning back Ipswich and could, despite withdrawing support for Kevin Craig over the widening betting scandal, see him elected in Central Suffolk and North Ipswich. Starmer would then be able to choose whether to endorse Craig should he be cleared of any wrongdoing. John Major’s old seat of Huntingdon is also poised to turn red, as is nearby Peterborough.
The Lib Dems are mostly targeting seats in and around Cambridgeshire and Hertfordshire, though in the latter county, it’s less clear to voters (particularly in Hitchin and St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire) as to which party is best placed to unseat the Conservatives.
Priti Patel and James Cleverley are set to hold on in Witham and Braintree respectively, and the pair will surely duke it out to rule over the ashes of the Tory Parliamentary Party, though it still remains to be seen how welcoming either of them would be to Farage himself.
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Seats:
Basildon and Billericay: Labour gain from Conservative
Bedford: Labour hold
Braintree: Conservative hold
Brentwood and Ongar: Conservative hold
Broadland and Fakenham: Labour gain from Conservative
Broxbourne: Labour gain from Conservative
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket: Conservative hold
Cambridge: Labour hold
Castle Point: Conservative hold
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich: Labour gain from Conservative
Chelmsford: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Clacton: Reform UK gain from Conservative
Colchester: Labour gain from Conservative
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard: Labour gain from Conservative
Ely and East Cambridgeshire: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Epping Forest: Conservative hold
Great Yarmouth: Labour gain from Conservative
Harlow: Labour gain from Conservative
Harpenden and Berkhamsted: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Harwich and North Essex: Labour gain from Conservative
Hemel Hempstead: Labour gain from Conservative
Hertford and Stortford: Labour gain from Conservative
Hertsmere: Conservative hold
Hitchin: Labour gain from Conservative
Huntingdon: Labour gain from Conservative
Ipswich: Labour gain from Conservative
Lowestoft: Labour gain from Conservative
Luton North: Labour hold
Luton South and South Bedfordshire: Labour hold
Maldon: Conservative hold
Mid Bedfordshire: Labour gain from Conservative
Mid Norfolk: Conservative hold
North Bedfordshire: Labour gain from Conservative
North East Cambridgeshire: Conservative hold
North East Hertfordshire: Labour gain from Conservative
North Norfolk: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
North West Cambridgeshire: Labour gain from Conservative
North West Essex: Conservative hold
North West Norfolk: Conservative hold
Norwich North: Labour gain from Conservative
Norwich South: Labour hold
Peterborough: Labour gain from Conservative
Rayleigh and Wickford: Conservative hold
South Basildon and East Thurrock: Conservative hold
South Cambridgeshire: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
South Norfolk: Labour gain from Conservative
South Suffolk: Labour gain from Conservative
South West Hertfordshire: Labour gain from Conservative
South West Norfolk: Labour gain from Conservative
Southend East and Rochford: Labour gain from Conservative
Southend West and Leigh: Labour gain from Conservative
St Albans: Liberal Democrat hold
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Stevenage: Labour gain from Conservative
Suffolk Coastal: Labour gain from Conservative
Thurrock: Labour gain from Conservative
Watford: Labour gain from Conservative
Waveney Valley: Green gain from Conservative
Welwyn Hatfield: Labour gain from Conservative
West Suffolk: Labour gain from Conservative
Witham: Conservative hold
Running Totals (2019 notionals / 2024 GE / change):
Labour: 133 / 316 / +187
Conservative: 221 / 44 / -177
Lib Dem: 3 / 20 / +17
SNP: 48 / 17 / -31
Plaid Cymru: 2 / 4 / +2
Reform UK: 0 / 3 / +3
Green: 0 / 2 / +2
======================
Sinn Féin: 7 / 8 / +1
Alliance: 1 / 3 / +2
DUP: 7 / 3 / -4
SDLP: 2 / 2 / 0
UUP: 0 / 1 / +1
Independent: 0 / 1 / +1
Speaker: 1 / 1 / 0
London
Tories reduced to SE London
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In the capital, the swings towards Labour will be lower than elsewhere (except Birmingham) for two reasons: firstly, they dominate the metropolis at the outset, and secondly, they maintained their long grip on the mayoralty after Sadiq Khan bested perhaps the worst Conservative candidate of all time, Susan Hall.
Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith should be ousted in Chingford and Woodford Green despite previous Labour candidate Faiza Sheehan complicating the complexion of that contest by sitting as an independent after her 11th-hour deselection. Starmer’s party is also set to gobble up most of the remaining inner city constituencies they don’t already hold that had ostensibly been three-way marginals with the Lib Dems—Finchley and Golders Green, and the Cities of London and Westminster being the two most prominent examples.
Instead, the intrigue will be centred in three quite specific areas. The Tories are strongest in the ‘outer’ constituencies, especially in the south west and south east. In the former, the Lib Dems are targeting them in Sutton and Cheam, Carshalton and Wallington, and Wimbledon to add to their enclave. Moreover, the Tories could be pushed into third in the third of this trio, though the Lib Dem campaign there has not been free from underhanded tactics, the kind anyone should condemn, regardless of partisan leanings.
Jeremy Corbyn is also set to lose in Islington North, having had the Labour whip removed by Starmer at the tail end of 2020. Though still enjoying sections of vociferous support within and without the party, any independent candidate, no matter well known, always struggles to win in a first-past-the-post contest, though he could still run his ‘replacement’ Praful Nargund close.
Attention could then turn to seats like Orpington, Bexleyheath and Crayford, and Bromley and Biggin Hill. Staunchly Conservative, all three should survive the ravages of a wipeout scenario, though almost nowhere is effectively guaranteed to remain blue after the election.
Seats:
Barking: Labour hold
Battersea: Labour hold
Beckenham and Penge: Labour hold
Bermondsey and Old Southwark: Labour hold
Bethnal Green and Stepney: Labour hold
Bexleyheath and Crayford: Conservative hold
Brent East: Labour hold
Brent West: Labour hold
Brentford and Isleworth: Labour hold
Bromley and Biggin Hill: Labour gain from Conservative
Carshalton and Wallington: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Chelsea and Fulham: Labour gain from Conservative
Chingford and Woodford Green: Labour gain from Conservative
Chipping Barnet: Labour gain from Conservative
Cities Of London and Westminster: Labour gain from Conservative
Clapham and Brixton Hill: Labour hold
Croydon East: Labour hold
Croydon South: Conservative hold
Croydon West: Labour hold
Dagenham and Rainham: Labour hold
Dulwich and West Norwood: Labour hold
Ealing Central and Acton: Labour hold
Ealing North: Labour hold
Ealing Southall: Labour hold
East Ham: Labour hold
Edmonton and Winchmore Hill: Labour hold
Eltham and Chislehurst: Labour gain from Conservative
Enfield North: Labour hold
Erith and Thamesmead: Labour hold
Feltham and Heston: Labour hold
Finchley and Golders Green: Labour gain from Conservative
Greenwich and Woolwich: Labour hold
Hackney North and Stoke Newington: Labour hold
Hackney South and Shoreditch: Labour hold
Hammersmith and Chiswick: Labour hold
Hampstead and Highgate: Labour hold
Harrow East: Labour gain from Conservative
Harrow West: Labour hold
Hayes and Harlington: Labour hold
Hendon: Labour gain from Conservative
Holborn and St Pancras: Labour hold
Hornchurch and Upminster: Conservative hold
Hornsey and Friern Barnet: Labour hold
Ilford North: Labour hold
Ilford South: Labour hold
Islington North: Labour hold
Islington South and Finsbury: Labour hold
Kensington and Bayswater: Labour hold
Kingston and Surbiton: Liberal Democrat hold
Lewisham East: Labour hold
Lewisham North: Labour hold
Lewisham West and East Dulwich: Labour hold
Leyton and Wanstead: Labour hold
Mitcham and Morden: Labour hold
Old Bexley and Sidcup: Conservative hold
Orpington: Conservative hold
Peckham: Labour hold
Poplar and Limehouse: Labour hold
Putney: Labour hold
Queen's Park and Maida Vale: Labour hold
Richmond Park: Liberal Democrat hold
Romford: Labour gain from Conservative
Ruislip, Northwood, and Pinner: Conservative hold
Southgate and Wood Green: Labour hold
Stratford and Bow: Labour hold
Streatham and Croydon North: Labour hold
Sutton and Cheam: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Tooting: Labour hold
Tottenham: Labour hold
Twickenham: Liberal Democrat hold
Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Labour gain from Conservative
Vauxhall and Camberwell Green: Labour hold
Walthamstow: Labour hold
West Ham and Beckton: Labour hold
Wimbledon: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Running Totals (2019 notionals / 2024 GE / change):
Labour: 185 / 379 / +194
Conservative: 241 / 50 / -191
Lib Dem: 6 / 26 / +20
SNP: 48 / 17 / -31
Plaid Cymru: 2 / 4 / +2
Reform UK: 0 / 3 / +3
Green: 0 / 2 / +2
======================
Sinn Féin: 7 / 8 / +1
Alliance: 1 / 3 / +2
DUP: 7 / 3 / -4
SDLP: 2 / 2 / 0
UUP: 0 / 1 / +1
Independent: 0 / 1 / +1
Speaker: 1 / 1 / 0
South East England
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Reform UK could gain a sizeable share of the vote across many south eastern seats at the election, but unlike in other regions where the sole beneficiaries of their surge are Labour, the Lib Dems are also set to muscle in on the act, dislodging the Conservatives in formerly rock-solid constituencies such as Wokingham, Witney (David Cameron’s old seat), Tunbridge Wells, and Surrey Heath. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is also right up against it in Godalming and Ash.
Sewage is a huge issue in many parts of the region, and anti-Conservative sentiment will be particularly high here, which could make for some surprising gains/losses. Additionally, Oxfordshire could become a blue-free county if Labour take Banbury alongside the aforementioned gains for Ed Davey’s party. Starmer is also set to turn a lot of the south coast red, including Dover and Deal, Ashford, and Hastings and Rye, proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that there are no ‘no-go’ places for him. However, attempts to dislodge the Greens from Brighton Pavilion could fail despite the council switching to Labour in 2023. Siân Berry, Caroline Lucas’ successor who has swapped the London Assembly for the chance to be an MP, ought to survive.
Penny Mordaunt, still fancied by many Tory party members on the ‘left’ to take the sword reins after the election, is very unlikely to retain her patch of Portsmouth North, but former Home Secretary Suella Braverman, an admirer of Farage and more open to a realignment of the right, should hold on in Fareham and Waterlooville because of evenly split Labour-Lib Dem opposition to her.
Seats:
Aldershot: Labour gain from Conservative
Arundel and South Downs: Conservative hold
Ashford: Labour gain from Conservative
Aylesbury: Labour gain from Conservative
Banbury: Labour gain from Conservative
Basingstoke: Labour gain from Conservative
Beaconsfield: Conservative hold
Bexhill and Battle: Labour gain from Conservative
Bicester and Woodstock: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Conservative hold
Bracknell: Labour gain from Conservative
Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven: Labour hold
Brighton Pavilion: Green hold
Buckingham and Bletchley: Labour gain from Conservative
Canterbury: Labour hold
Chatham and Aylesford: Labour gain from Conservative
Chesham and Amersham: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Chichester: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Crawley: Labour gain from Conservative
Dartford: Labour gain from Conservative
Didcot and Wantage: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Dorking and Horley: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Dover and Deal: Labour gain from Conservative
Earley and Woodley: Labour gain from Conservative
East Grinstead and Uckfield: Conservative hold
East Hampshire: Conservative hold
East Surrey: Conservative hold
East Thanet: Labour gain from Conservative
East Worthing and Shoreham: Labour gain from Conservative
Eastbourne: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Eastleigh: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Epsom and Ewell: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Esher and Walton: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Fareham and Waterlooville: Conservative hold
Farnham and Bordon: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Faversham and Mid Kent: Conservative hold
Folkestone and Hythe: Labour gain from Conservative
Gillingham and Rainham: Labour gain from Conservative
Godalming and Ash: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Gosport: Conservative hold
Gravesham: Labour gain from Conservative
Guildford: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Hamble Valley: Conservative hold
Hastings and Rye: Labour gain from Conservative
Havant: Conservative hold
Henley and Thame: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Herne Bay and Sandwich: Labour gain from Conservative
Horsham: Conservative hold
Hove and Portslade: Labour hold
Isle Of Wight East: Labour gain from Conservative
Isle Of Wight West: Labour gain from Conservative
Lewes: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Maidenhead: Conservative hold
Maidstone and Malling: Labour gain from Conservative
Mid Buckinghamshire: Conservative hold
Mid Sussex: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Milton Keynes Central: Labour gain from Conservative
Milton Keynes North: Labour gain from Conservative
New Forest East: Conservative hold
New Forest West: Conservative hold
Newbury: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
North East Hampshire: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
North West Hampshire: Conservative hold
Oxford East: Labour hold
Oxford West and Abingdon: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Portsmouth North: Labour gain from Conservative
Portsmouth South: Labour hold
Reading Central: Labour hold
Reading West and Mid Berkshire: Labour gain from Conservative
Reigate: Conservative hold
Rochester and Strood: Labour gain from Conservative
Romsey and Southampton North: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Runnymede and Weybridge: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Sevenoaks: Conservative hold
Sittingbourne and Sheppey: Labour gain from Conservative
Slough: Labour hold
Southampton Itchen: Labour gain from Conservative
Southampton Test: Labour hold
Spelthorne: Labour gain from Conservative
Surrey Heath: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Sussex Weald: Conservative hold
Tonbridge: Conservative hold
Tunbridge Wells: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Weald of Kent: Conservative hold
Winchester: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Windsor: Labour gain from Conservative
Witney: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Woking: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Wokingham: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Worthing West: Labour gain from Conservative
Wycombe: Labour gain from Conservative
Running Totals (2019 notionals / 2024 GE / change):
Labour: 193 / 421 / +228
Conservative: 322 / 72 / -250
Lib Dem: 7 81 / 52 / +45
SNP: 48 / 17 / -31
Plaid Cymru: 2 / 4 / +2
Green: 1 / 3 / +2
Reform UK: 0 / 3 / +3
======================
Sinn Féin: 7 / 8 / +1
Alliance: 1 / 3 / +2
DUP: 7 / 3 / -4
SDLP: 2 / 2 / 0
UUP: 0 / 1 / +1
Independent: 0 / 1 / +1
Speaker: 1 / 1 / 0
South West England
Prior to 2015, many areas of the south west married their nonconformist, small ‘l’ liberal views with votes in droves for the Lib Dems. A combination of the coalition and the Brexit vote muddied those waters, but in 2024, the resurgence is on… though Labour are also on the rise, too.
Somerset, Devon, and Cornwall are set to be painted in three primary colours, though the extent of how much blue will remain on the map is open for debate. Geoffrey Cox ought to survive in Torridge and Tavistock, though it could turn into a four-way marginal in 2028/2029. The Lib Dems will seek to hang onto by-election wins in the much-changed seats of Honiton and Sidmouth, and Glastonbury and Somerton, and then broaden out to the surrounding areas in an attempt to win back their former heartlands.
Labour are now competitive in the region as well, and not just in the larger towns and cities—a whole series of seats might be gained from Camborne and Redruth in deepest Cornwall to Bridgwater in West Somerset to South Dorset. Elsewhere, they’re set to turn the western parts of Gloucestershire red, which would include taking Transport Secretary Mark Harper’s seat of the Forest of Dean where I live.
The one seat currently held by Labour that they might lose is Bristol Central, which has had outsized attention during the campaign as Green co-leader Carla Denyer is challenging for it against Thangam Debbonaire, who is currently the Shadow Culture Secretary. In the recent local elections, her party became the largest on the city council, and all of the wards in the parliamentary seat were gained.
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Seats:
Bath: Liberal Democrat hold
Bournemouth East: Labour gain from Conservative
Bournemouth West: Labour gain from Conservative
Bridgwater: Labour gain from Conservative
Bristol Central: Green gain from Labour
Bristol East: Labour hold
Bristol North East: Labour hold
Bristol North West: Labour hold
Bristol South: Labour hold
Camborne and Redruth: Labour gain from Conservative
Central Devon: Labour gain from Conservative
Cheltenham: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Chippenham: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Christchurch: Conservative hold
East Wiltshire: Conservative hold
Exeter: Labour hold
Exmouth and Exeter East: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Filton and Bradley Stoke: Labour gain from Conservative
Forest Of Dean: Labour gain from Conservative
Frome and East Somerset: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Glastonbury and Somerton: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Gloucester: Labour gain from Conservative
Honiton and Sidmouth: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Melksham and Devizes: Conservative hold
Mid Dorset and North Poole: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Newton Abbot: Labour gain from Conservative
North Cornwall: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
North Cotswolds: Conservative hold
North Devon: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
North Dorset: Conservative hold
North East Somerset and Hanham: Labour gain from Conservative
North Somerset: Labour gain from Conservative
Plymouth Moor View: Labour gain from Conservative
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport: Labour hold
Poole: Labour gain from Conservative
Salisbury: Labour gain from Conservative
South Cotswolds: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
South Devon: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
South Dorset: Labour gain from Conservative
South East Cornwall: Conservative hold
South West Devon: Conservative hold
South West Wiltshire: Labour gain from Conservative
St Austell and Newquay: Labour gain from Conservative
St Ives: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Stroud: Labour gain from Conservative
Swindon North: Labour gain from Conservative
Swindon South: Labour gain from Conservative
Taunton and Wellington: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Tewkesbury: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Thornbury and Yate: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Tiverton and Minehead: Conservative hold
Torbay: Conservative hold
Torridge and Tavistock: Conservative hold
Truro and Falmouth: Labour gain from Conservative
Wells and Mendip Hills: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
West Dorset: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Weston-Super-Mare: Labour gain from Conservative
Yeovil: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Running Totals (2019 notionals / 2024 GE / change):
Labour: 200 / 449 / +249
Conservative: 372 / 82 / -292
Lib Dem: 8 / 71 / +63
SNP: 48 / 17 / -31
Green: 1 / 4 / +3
Plaid Cymru: 2 / 4 / +2
Reform UK: 0 / 3 / +3
======================
Sinn Féin: 7 / 8 / +1
Alliance: 1 / 3 / +2
DUP: 7 / 3 / -4
SDLP: 2 / 2 / 0
UUP: 0 / 1 / +1
Independent: 0 / 1 / +1
Speaker: 1 / 1 / 0
Conclusions
Though a large part of the outcome of the general election can almost feel baked in at this point, it’s hard to stress just how much of a shift a prediction like the one I’ve made would represent. Yes, Labour would have the largest majority in the UK of any party ever, and yes, the Tories would have had their worst result in their entire bicentennial existence. However, there would also be true multi-party representation, wholly at odds with the current electoral system.
The Lib Dems would be in touching distance of official opposition, a concept so alien to even the most fevered dreams of both long-standing and new, youthful members, that it would take them years to adjust to it, let alone Westminster or the media. Reform UK and the Greens would have more MPs than they do now, and the groundswell of support for a change to proportional representation would crucially come from the right as well as the left. Naturally, the new Labour government would ignore those calls, but perhaps at the cost of some of their MPs and supporters.
Naturally, there’s a chance that my predictions are going to be way off, too. The Lib Dem figure in reality might be half what I’ve put—many in the party can attest to wild, scattergun targeting in 2010 and 2019 in recent memory; the Tories might get double 82 to scrape a heavy defeat from the jaws of oblivion, partly because of hesitancy surrounding Reform UK and the latter party’s lack of ground game. Equally though, it could be quite accurate—nothing I’ve predicted above is out of step with either the latest VIs or MRPs. Either way, there’s not long now to wait to witness the most predictable yet unpredictable election in decades.
If you would like to see all the results on an interactive spreadsheet (let’s face it, who wouldn’t?), I have a link on my Google Drive to one I made! It also has the Lib Dem and Alliance candidates for every seat (except Chorley where the main parties don’t stand against the Speaker, and Manchester Rusholme—the nomination papers in the latter had an issue).